That sage advice came from my high school track coach more than 30 years ago. The year’s not over yet, but we thought we’d be early too, and take a look at what’s in store for 2017. After all, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is over even if the work itself has just begun and the US has a new Commander in Chief, right, President Clinton? Plus, forecasters are already focusing on 2017 anyway.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook downgraded 2017 expectations for advanced economies a bit to 3.4% due to weaker than expected growth in the US. Still, the IMF remains bullish on prospects in emerging Asian markets. Taking a closer look at the global household and personal products industry, Euromonitor International analysts expect marginal sales declines for 2016, followed by a return to growth during the five-year period ending in 2020.

“FMCG companies must shift focus to markets with healthier growth opportunities such as India and Indonesia,” noted Kotryna Tamoseviciene, a macro analytics manager at Euromonitor. “Value-added consumer goods such as premium skin care appear to offer more secure revenues, for now.”

Within beauty and personal care, Euromonitor anticipates the sharpest downgrades in men’s toiletries and fragrances, both losing 0.5 percentage points in compound annual growth rate over 2015-2020. In laundry, Euromonitor predicts that US laundry care sales will decline as well during the 2015-2020 period, as retailers continue their race to the bottom in an effort to woo consumers with lower prices.

If economic conditions aren’t enough to worry about, there are plenty of other issues of concern. The environment is one. Unilever CEO Paul Polman does an excellent job of outlining how the household cleaning industry is adding to the planet’s problems in Clean It Up, which begins on p. 56 in this issue. Of course, the personal cleanser category has been rocked by the FDA ban on traditional antibacterial ingredients (p. 66). The issue has become international, since Japan is making similar moves.

One bright spot, especially as we head into the all-important holiday season, is demand for prestige fine fragrance. Melissa Meisel looks at the latest launches that are sure to find their way under the tree next month (p. 73). So, start shopping now and start searching now for new revenue streams, because whether it’s entering new markets, clicking away on Cyber Monday or getting to track practice, Eddie Caporale had it right all those years ago: “Don’t be on time, be early!”

Tom Branna
Editorial Director
[email protected]